Thursday, June 8, 2017

Re-Evaluating The Alex Wood Trade

While many fans seem to applaud most every move made by current Braves' GM John Coppolella, he has made his fair share of questionable moves. Perhaps his most questionable trade: trading Alex Wood to the Dodgers. In this trade, Atlanta received: Paco Rodriguez, Hector Olivera, and Zachary Bird.

( Source: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images North America) 




















As someone who follows the Braves closely, most fans were surprised by the move, but seemed
alright with trading Alex Wood because, "he's going to be injured soon anyway." From the start, fans seemed to not have much faith in Wood due to his mechanics. And while worrying is understandable, the fact remained that Wood was an above average starter during his time in Atlanta. Combined with his age and modest contract, Alex Wood was essentially a steal in the second round by former Braves' general manager Frank Wren.

Alex Wood seemed like the kind of piece a team would want to build around. Especially a rebuilding team like the Braves. However, Coppolella had an unbridled desire to land Hector Olivera. It was rumored that the Braves had made a very serious offer to Olivera before he signed with the Dodgers. Determined to get his man, Coppolella dealt Alex Wood to the Dodgers. Also included in the deal was then top prospect José Peraza, another piece Atlanta could have used to build around. While Peraza might be a bit limited offensively, he makes good use of his tools: ranking third in triples, fourth in stolen bases, third in defensive assists, third in double plays turned as a second baseman, and third in total zone run as a second baseman. He may not be an All-Star, but he is a very serviceable player at the Major League level. Luis Avilan was also dealt to the Dodgers and he has also been very serviceable. It's worth noting that the Braves don't have a lefty reliever with an ERA under 5.48 (Sam Freeman has been solid, but with half the sample size of EOF and Ian Krol.) Peraza and Avilan were basically "throw-ins" in the trade for Olivera and would both be valuable pieces to the current Braves' roster.

Looking back at the pieces the Braves received for Alex Wood, well, there's nothing much to see at all. None of the players sent to Atlanta are still in the organization. Hector Olivera was released following his very serious domestic violence incident, Zachary Bird is now in the Rangers organization, and Paco Rodriguez is seemingly out of baseball rehabbing injuries (was released by Atlanta at the end of spring training.)

While Alex Wood continues to thrive in Los Angeles, I see a lot of Braves fans on Twitter still stating that, "he's going to get hurt with his mechanics!" It's almost as if they want him to be injured so they can claim Atlanta, "won the trade!" Given the pieces Atlanta received for Alex Wood, just him being on a Major League roster is a win for the Dodgers.

Some fans point that this trade eventually led to Atlanta getting Matt Kemp, and that alone is enough to make most of them happy. However, Matt Kemp hasn't been very valuable in his time with Atlanta. If you look at his offensive stats, you'll see he's been above average, but he looks much more suited as a DH in the American League than someone you'd want to plug in the outfield everyday. While he's hitting a robust: .322/.357/.553 this season, his defense is atrocious. Even with posting an OPS of .910, he's barely above replacement level due to his defense. He's on track to finish the season with around a 2-3 WAR (bb-ref). While some point to his arrival last season and the Braves solid finish to the season, there's now been a bigger sample and it's clear that he's not having that much of an impact on this team in 2017. If you play a replacement level player everyday and give them enough at-bats, they're going to have solid stats. Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman both bat ahead of him and they're very good at getting on base. Kemp can compile offensive stats when he's constantly coming up with people on base. It's just like, say, Brandon Phillips batting behind Joey Votto while in Cincinnati. Phillips and Kemp both lack plate discipline to take walks, but they usually put the ball in play and drive in runs at decent rate. I think the law of averages will tell you that if you come up enough with guys on base, you're bound to drive one in every once and a while. To be great at it in baseball, you simply need to be successful, what... 27% of the time? Besides, RBI's are overrated in my opinion. Congrats, your teammates did all the work and you got a hit! Buster Posey is on pace to have over 20 home runs and something like... 50 RBI's. I'd argue that having him hit where Kemp is on he Braves, he'd have well over 50 RBI's at this point. Even Nick Markakis has over 30 RBI's and he just slaps singles all over the ballpark.

Getting back on track, Atlanta essentially traded young building blocks to just to end up with an aging Matt Kemp. As it stands, the Braves offense is actually pretty solid. They rank in the top ten in the National League for team OPS, and they are in the top three in both team average and on-base. Offense isn't the biggest issue with this team, but their rotation is a nightmare. Adding two 40+ year old starters to the mix wasn't the answer, and thus, even more reason why the Alex Wood trade was a colossal failure. Even if Alex Wood kept on his pace he had in Atlanta, he'd be the ace of their rotation. For a team that continuously talks about wanting pitching, continuously drafts pitching, and still has pitching issues, dealing a young (and cheap) starter never made much sense. Maybe the Braves only saw Wood as being a back end guy or a reliever? Guess we'll never know.

As the Braves continue their long rebuild, the "new car smell" with Coppolella might be wearing off for some fans. While there's an abundance of pitching prospects, most of the notable hitting prospects in the system are carry overs from the Frank Wren era: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Braxton Davidson, Randy Ventura, Carlos Castro, Joey Meneses, and Luis Valenzuela. Although, I'd argue that the most exciting minor league hitting prospect (not named Ronald Acuna) might end up being Alex Jackson, but he seems to be dealing with injuries this season. Jackson also seemed to have issues with Mariners' organization, so there's no telling what to expect out of him moving forward. While the Braves continue to have draft picks inside the top five, they're bound to produce one or two major hitting prospects as time goes on. Having draft picks that high is also something that the previous front office didn't have the luxury of experiencing, but they still produced many players on current Major League rosters.

The draft is fast approaching and it'll be interesting to see which route the Braves take this year. Will the finally draft a high upside college bat? Or continue to build around high school pitching? When you look around the league, taking upside college bats seems to be the way to rebuild, but I guess that's not "the Braves way!" 

So, while the Braves continue to search for pitching, Alex Wood continues to shine for the Dodgers. The Braves are left with an expensive, aging, one dimensional outfielder in Matt Kemp. Hector Olivera is playing Indy league ball with seemingly no future in Major League Baseball. No matter which way you cut it, this may go down as the worst trade in the John Coppolella era in Atlanta. 

22 comments:

  1. Dude I usually don't even read something past a point where it gets ridiculous but I just feel the need to comment on your click bait, gotta submit something article. I mean you water down the stats and info you provide to make Coppy look like an incompetent baffoon.

    First off, Coppy admitted this was the one deal he wanted back by far. However it was a reasonable trade at the time. Was Alex Wood pretty primed to have arm issues yes. Has he avoided the issue up to this point, yes. Has he been anything above replacement player up until this year, NO. To me both sides benefitted little to none from this deal. Yes Alex Wood has rebounded finally. And Matt Kemp, though you trash him, was never even thought of from the beginning. Considering Olivera was a lost cause after the DV, and they were able to get Kemp at a dicounted rate, I consider that alone a moral victory, props to Coppy for that. Not only that but him and Freeman together have formed a formidable duo offensively until they can either get more help through the farm system or through free agency. Yes his defense is not great, though he has improved it slightly, but is that a worthy tradeoff? Considering you have an above average defensive RF and a gold glove CF? Plus even better defensive outfielders in the minors (Pache, Acuna). I think so. I mean I couldn't tell you off the top of my head but he hit 10-15 HRs? post trade last year and has had gaudy all start caliber numbers this season. Though he's likely not going to reflect on any significant success, to make the statement "Kemp hasn't been very valuable in his time with Atlanta" is ludicrous! Really he has taken pressure off of Freeman, bolstered the offense and considering the loss the Braves had looming, was a great tradeoff.

    When it comes to pitching, they have already stockpiled the entire system in the hopes they have 3 to 4 star to quality starters. It obviously take patience to do that, hence a rebuild. But the fact they have had an effective rebuild in terms of talent acquired, and made decent efforts to field a decent team at the major league level has been an incredible feat to achieve. Though they had a bad year last season. They are an average team this year, when in reality they are still a year or two away in terms of how long it typically takes a full blown rebuild to succeed (look at the Astros, Mets, Cubs). For you to say Coppy hasn't collected any offensive players either is also ludicrous, I mean really? Have you not heard of Travis Demeritte, Kevin Maitan, Cristian Pache?!? All of which were not acquired via high draft picks (I could include B Cumberland and Austin Riley if you included those). He's collected talent in all facets. And not only that, the guys has only been at the helm for only a year and a half! Two if you want to count him working under John Hart. What more do you expect in a full on rebuild?

    I mean I could also knock the ridiculous comments about, and I'm paraphrasing "If you give a replacement player enough at bats they will have good stats." But I'm not even going to go into detail. I'm only commenting because I'm asking you to actually do extensive research before you post articles making certain claims and understand the entire situation. Instead of throwing something together because you are either impulsive, or you chief editor is breathing down on you to get something out. Thank you for reading my rebuttal

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    1. Wow bro your passion is nice, but your obvious bias and pure outrage at the article are illogical. The FO has made some good trades, but if you remove the diamond backs goof and they get a c+. They get an A right now, but it would have been an A+++++++++ if it had not been for the Simmons and olivera trades. Kemp should not be discussed bc he was a pure salary dump. The pads did not want olivera, it was just easier than sending cash with kemp. Yes the guy is down on copy's hitting prospects, but that is understandable. Jackson before spending 3 weeks on the dl was the best hitter in the minors- transitioning back behind the plate comes with injuries. D. Peterson looks to be markakis like/lite. And kemp will be a nice bench bat when Acuna makes it up next year. Ruiz slowly but surely looks like a legitimate big league hitter. We don't have a Bryant or trout or arenado- but our collective group will score enough for our rotation to go deep in the playoffs in the next 2 years. The FO has done a decent job and we will have a better record than the dodgers in two years...

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    2. Simmons trade? People still think that's a loss by acquiring Newcomb? Will people still think the trade is a loss if Newcomb is a rotation staple going forward?

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    3. I don't get paid for these articles, so calling it "clickbait" or whatever else is foolish. And you seem pretty angry about someone having different opinions. Maybe you should write an article and submit somewhere? That might be a better idea next time. You come at me and your whole post is full of biased stuff that I normally would ignore, but...

      You mentioned Cumberland and he's the kind of player I pointed to them taking: A college bats. So, glad you agree on that, buddy.

      "Travis Demeritte, Kevin Maitan, Cristian Pache"

      Atlanta fans seem to be obsessed with Travis Demeritte. I think he's a decent prospect, but he strikes out over 25% of the time and most people seem him as a utility player at the Major League Level. Not exactly a building block. What's his ceiling? A Bill Hall type of player?

      Maitan has yet to play, but if you mention him, why not counter with Acuna? Who was signed by the previous front office, just like Albies. The hype around Maitan is high, but fans need to realize he's just a kid. And is probably three to four years away.

      Pache is another guy who is far away and not many people know how he'll translate at the next level. Again, probably three to five years away.

      Enjoy your day. Take the time to enjoy blogs people do for fun. If you have an issue, start your own blog and submit to MLBTR. And you can have people personally attacking you for pointing out bad trades.


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  2. I blasted it from the beginning... young controllable pitchers and perazza... it didn't make sense! Wood flashed front end potential frequently! If they wanted olivera they should have paid him more than the dodgers. This was about selling Alex wood and Peraza for cash. And we make fun of being able to buy touki... But I do think we got a draft pick that ended up being Austin Riley but I'm not 100% on that.

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    1. "They should have paid more than the Dodgers"...a statement that will be applied to every team every time the Dodgers are bidding. Others team often get a discount on current prospects when a new GM takes over. Frank Wren (or "Fran Wren" as the author writes in his article...lol) had the reputation of running off longtime Braves scouts and isolating himself. When he left, so did many longtime scouts (including Roy Clark) in addition to many longtime NYY scouts that Coppy was familiar with like Gordon Blakeley. Wood was thought to have an awkward delivery that still baffles people, and considering he's already had 1 TJ surgery (while at UGA in college), another one would be the scarlet letter. Considering we had a rash of arm injuries with our "untouchable pitching prospects" under Wren including Mike Minor & Kris Medlen (2 TJs), Coppy took a long hard look at the future of the rotation and didn't think it was smart to rely too much on that delivery. Yes, Wood has looked fantastic at times for LAD, but he's also been on the DL twice in 2017 alone (including making his 1st start since his 2nd return on Sat night 6/10/17 where he didn't get through 6 IP). For a rotation desperate for quality innings, Wood would not be the answer. LAD have the luxury of having a deep starting rotation with multiple oft-injured, but high-end pieces (i.e. Ryu, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Brandon McCarthy, Kenta Maeda) they can plug onto the (new) 10-day DL and slot someone else into the rotation. A team that signed 2 forty-year-olds would not be able to do that with Wood, anytime his arm/shoulder/pectorals start acting up.

      Yes, Wood is having a good year, and as a UGA Bulldawg, I wish him continued success, but I don't think he would have had that success in ATL, sorry.

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  3. ridiculous article. No one is perfect and our GM even admitted to not doing well in this specific trade. The "Johns " have done very well in rebuilding the club and we are on the brink of seeing great success.

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    1. Dude are you part of their PR team or something? Not every move they have made has been "amazing." If you can't be critical of a move, you shouldn't be a fan. That's great that you think the Braves are close to being successful again. I'll respect your opinion and hopefully in the future, you'll respect other people who may not agree with everything the Braves PR team wants you to believe.

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  4. This trade is readily admitted by Coppy as the one he would want back. Also, just out of curiosity how do you figure the Braves are "continuing to search for pitching"?? They have pitching galore on the brink of coming up.

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    1. Well, when you sign 2 forty-year-olds and 1 of them was DL'd because he's been so bad, you're looking for pitching. Luckily we had a top pitching prospect that was just about ready - and had a great debut. But, if Dickey doesn't pull it together, I'm not sure we will see the same results by plugging in Lucas Sims, etc. Not only that, they won't be able to post the same IP that were expected of Colon/Dickey, so they'll eventually need another starter at some point in 2017.

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  5. time and time again they've said "you can never have enough pitching" so it's pretty obvious if they see somewhere they can get pitching, they'll get pitching

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  6. It was a bad trade, but don't just cherry pick stats to bolster your argument. Peraza has a .627 OPS. Who cares how many double plays he has helped turn when he is so mediocre offensively.

    Alex Wood was, and is, a fantastic pitcher. It was a mistake on Coppy's part. But to act like Peraza was a loss, or to minimize how good of a hitter Kemp has been is an amateur move. This article is littered with anecdotal evidence and is poorly written.

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    1. The Braves defense this year is atrocious. Plain and simple. And having a player like Kemp, who is a good hitter and a butcher in the field does not help your team win. Like it was stated, he'd be a great DH in the AL, but his fielding is dreadful. He and Markakis are two of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. Ender is a very good defensive player, but he has nothing around him. Jason Heyward has a higher WAR than Kakes and Kemp combined and it's mainly due to his defense.

      The point of mentioning Peraza is that he was essentially a throw in to get Olivera and he is a valuable player. His speed, range, and defense would be helpful to the Braves. It's not "cherry picking" when you use stats to back up how someone would be valuable to a team.

      I'd advise you to read more carefully next time and respect when someone has a different opinion than you have. Believe it or not, you are allowed to be critical of moves and still be a fan. Crazy, but true.

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  7. It was a bad trade, but don't just cherry pick stats to bolster your argument. Peraza has a .627 OPS. Who cares how many double plays he has helped turn when he is so mediocre offensively.

    Alex Wood was, and is, a fantastic pitcher. It was a mistake on Coppy's part. But to act like Peraza was a loss, or to minimize how good of a hitter Kemp has been is an amateur move. This article is littered with anecdotal evidence and is poorly written.

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  8. True, Wood deal was bad, but trading Simmons compares. Swanson has made a ton of errors and probably would be best at third. Braves could also promote Albies and plug him in at short. But nobody in baseball compares to Simmons, whose defense saved a lot of games. The Braves sorely miss him.

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    1. Trading Simmons doesn't compare. We are just now seeing what Newcomb is capable of, and even then, we still won't know until he has more starts in MLB. Even then, we used Chris Ellis (along with John Gant from KJ trade) to acquire Jaime Garcia that looks to be our saving grace this year, and he can fetch more prospects come Trade Deadline 2017, even if you give a mulligan to the also-acquired Erick Aybar, that got us catching prospect Kade Scivicque who is having a decent year in MS. So, Simmons trade boils down to obtaining Sean Newcomb, Jaime Garcia (Chris Ellis), Kade Scivicque (Erick Aybar) and $53 million in future contracts (for Andrelton Simmons). That financial savings hasn't really been spent yet except on international signings.

      And the idea that Swanson needs to move to 3B is hilarious because of his errors. Forget the fact that it's Swanson's rookie season, or that he plays the busiest defensive position on the field and sees more action at SS than anyone else, OR the fact that the golden glove god that is Andrelton Simmons has 8 errors already, compared to Swanson's 11 (note: 50% of the top-10 leaders in MLB in errors in 2017 are SS including Tim Anderson, Swanson, Elvis Andrus, Asdrubel Cabrera, Simmons). Swanson's bat wouldn't be good enough for the hot corner, as you need more of a power hitter.

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  9. Did anyone actually watch Newcomb pitch yesterday? Not sure how you can blast the Simmons trade. Simmons is great defensively but no offense, bad offense at best. He is/was the absolute pop-up king. You guys are blasting Swanson when he's played less than a year. Even as bad as his O stats are now, they're better than Simmons in productivity. And he is a very good but raw SS defender. Right now, it might be best to keep Phillips at 2B and put Swanson at 3rd and Albies at SS. but when Demeritte is ready an infield of FF, OA, DS, and Demeritte will be outstanding for a very long time both defensively and offensively. That's why both Simmons and Peraza were redundant. Newcomb will be a better replacement for Simmons. I, too, never thought the Olivera trade was woth it. It was a stupid trade. But it was also about the only stupid trade and certainly seems balanced by the Swanson stupid trade that came the Braves way. Inciarte was probably worth Miller all by himself based upon performance thus far.

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    1. Again with the "move Swanson to 3B" talk. Albies will be better at 2B, Swanson at 3B. Demeritte is better defensively at 3B and hits for power. Swanson, like you said, has raw defensive skills and needs to improve on his consistency that takes games played. Let the guy settle into his first year in the bigs. Newcomb looked great, and I hope he continues, but his value shouldn't blind you from the fact that Simmons has been ALMOST more valuable offensively in his not yet 1.5 years in LAA than his 3.5 years in ATL according to oWAR (LAA: 4.0 vs. ATL: 4.4). Simmons should easily be more valuable by the end of 2017, even more so if Trout gets back sooner which will help pad his stats even more. Braves gambled on Simmons not figuring it out with his bat, and for the most part, he has. I think it helps when you know your role on the team and you have cornerstones like Trout/Pujols backing you.

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    2. I meant "Albies will be better at 2B, Swanson at SS".

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    3. This article was written before Newcomb made his debut. Just wanted to point that out. His debut was nice. The Mets aren't exactly the greatest offensive team of all-time. Perhaps the biggest issue is the managing by Snitker and his bullpen usage. Newcomb looked solid. Let's hope they continue to give him starts over Colon.

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  10. It's silly to comment on this article. Other commenters have already said it, but there is so few facts and tangible evidence. Any Braves fan would at least comment on Freeman's numbers post-Kemp than pre-Kemp. Without Kemp, we'd have Tyler Flowers or Brandon Phillips protecting Freeman. You can count on 1 finger the pitchers that are afraid to pitch to Tyler Flowers.

    Not building around college bats seems like its not the Braves way??? C'mon! Braves 2 drafts under the new FO have been heavy in high school pitching, thus loading up on it. If Nick Senzel was available at #3 in 2016 Draft, he'd a Brave and the future 3B, but he wasn't, just like Wren punted our draft picks in other drafts when it was heavy on college bats (i.e. 2013 Draft: Kris Bryant, Hunter Renfroe, Colin Moran, Hunter Dozier, Aaron Judge -- fun fact: Braves took college RHP Jason Hursh with the comp pick we got by letting Michael Bourn go, and we didn't have a 1st round pick that year thanks to signing BJ Upton -- another way BJ screwed us. ATL would have had a #24 overall pick that year, and it would have been fun to think who they would have been drafted had we had a competent FO).

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    1. Part of the reason why the Braves "punted", as you put it,on draft picks was because ownership didn't want to spend on draft picks. The Braves are still drafting guys that will take below slot money (Ian Anderson) just to save later on. If making one bad free agent signing is enough to fire a GM, well what does that say about the team? Upton's contract wasn't even that bad given the market. I do wish that Wren had taken more college bats myself. His draft picks weren't always the best, but you have to remember where the Braves were picking in those drafts. They took Mike Minor early, but I think he was a solid pick. He was arguably their number two starter before injuries set him back. When a general manager has to beg to sign a starter (Ervin Santana), you can pretty much assume it's because your ownership doesn't want to spend to actually improve the team.

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