Showing posts with label John Coppolella. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Coppolella. Show all posts

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Where Are They Now? Looking Back at the Braves "Rebuild."

To preface this article, I just want to mention that it would be difficult to mention every player that Atlanta traded during their "rebuild" from 2014-2017. While it would be nice to look back over every transaction, I think it's better to look at the players who actually appeared in the majors during that time. Also, while the "rebuild" started after the 2014 season, the Braves were already moving on from players in previous seasons. So, let's get right to it.

Starting off, let's take a look at the players Atlanta let-go (or traded) who went on to win the World Series. While they weren't all traded, Atlanta wasn't in a position to actually keep some of these players due to having an ownership group that is more focused on turning a profit, rather than actually competing to win championships.

Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, David Ross (twice actually), Evan Gattis, Tommy La Stella, etc. I'm sure there's a few more, but those are the ones that stick out most to me.

In addition to those players, which I will be discussing again shortly, the Braves traded/released/moved quite a few players who find themselves having great success with their current teams.

Most notably, Mike Minor, John Gant, and Tommy La Stella. For a team that preaches the importance of pitching, Atlanta essentially let Mike Minor walk after the 2014 season. He found his way to Kansas City where he established himself as a top left handed reliever during the 2016 season. After signing with the Rangers, he moved back into the starting rotation and currently finds himself amongst the leaders in the American League in most pitching categories.



















As for Tommy La Stella, he's finally getting a chance to start for a team and he's having an All-Star caliber season for the Angels. Atlanta never seemed to want to give La Stella a chance to play and he was moved for Arodys Vizcaino, who has since been traded to the Mariners. In 2014, Fredi Gonzalez wanted to play Dan Uggla everyday even though Uggla was a shell of his former self at that point. While La Stella didn't have the fanfare of some of the prospects Atlanta currently has, he always showed the ability to be a contributor at the Major League level.
















Moving on, let's take a look at some of the other players Atlanta moved to "rebuild."

La Stella's teammate, Andrelton Simmons was not only a fan favorite, but was a very solid shortstop during his time in Atlanta. He was also only 25 years old and on a team friendly deal at the time of his trade to the Angels. Atlanta received Erick Aybar (who is out of baseball), Chris Ellis (who is now with the Royals), and Sean Newcomb (who looks like nothing more than a back-end starter or middle reliever at this point.) Simmons has gone on to winning more Gold Gloves since leaving Atlanta and has become a much better player offensively than he was during his tenure in Atlanta.









It would be easy to point at the fact Atlanta traded a 26-year old Justin Upton to help them rebuild and get younger, but he has also gone on to put up solid offensive seasons since leaving Atlanta. While Atlanta received a bunch of nothing in that deal, at least they acquired Max Fried, who has been one of the more consistent starters for Atlanta so far in 2019.

Alex Wood is another player I've mentioned numerous times on this blog, so it's kind of like beating a dead horse at this point. However, it was always amazing to me that a rebuilding team would look to trade yet another young cost-controlled left handed starter, but that's exactly what the Braves did in 2014. Atlanta decided to trade the 24-year old in an effort to get "younger and rebuild" and boy did they get quite a haul for Wood. They received Hector Olivera, Zach Bird, and Paco Rodriguez in the trade. Olivera was rightfully released after his numerous domestic violence issues, Bird hasn't pitched since 2016, and Rodriguez hasn't pitched in the majors since 2015. This was another great move made by the club during their rebuilding efforts (if you can't read sarcasm, well that was sarcasm.)

Atlanta was able to "rebuild" their farm system, but it's not as if that was done given the moves by the former GM John Coppolella. Frank Wren was the GM when the club signed Ronald Acuña, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, etc. I will be frank (no-pun intended) Wren did a much better job in Atlanta than people give him credit for. While most people in the organization seemed to have hated him, he took a franchise with significant financial restraints and got them back in a position to make the playoffs throughout his entire tenure in Atlanta. John Coppolella had the benefit of always drafting towards the top of the draft and folks in the industry seemed to give him every chance to succeeded while proclaiming all of his moves as "smart" and "great deals" for Atlanta. I don't find that to be accurate at all. Just looking over some of the moves he made during his tenure, you can point to a few that honestly set the franchise back in terms of a "rebuild." That's not evening accounting for the off-the-field issues Coppolella had and his eventual ban from baseball.

Coppolella also seemed to move players just for the sake of moving them. A few players that stick out to me: Ryan Buchter, Chasen Shreve, and John Gant. Gant is especially having a good season with the Cardinals.



























Gant could be giving the Braves much needed relief help at the moment, but since Wren left, they've had issues putting together a bullpen. While most fans dislike Wren, you can't argue the fact that he was great at drafting/signing bullpen arms. While Gant was acquired and traded during the tenure of Coppolella, he was never given a chance to actually develop while in Atlanta. They seemed more focused on pitching older vets or players who are out of baseball.


During the "rebuild" in Atlanta, the organization gave up on numerous players who have since found their way to other organizations and are making an impact. Mike Minor is pitching better than ever, Tommy La Stella is playing like an All-Star, and Alex Wood has shown his ability to pitch in the post-season with success.

Craig Kimbrel, who just signed with the Cubs, is still the best closer in baseball and is coming off a World Series winning season with the Red Sox in 2018. Atlanta needed a proven closer, but passed on a chance to sign him to a modest contract in the off-season (and then passed on giving him a contract during the season due to worries over losing a draft pick...) As I've mentioned numerous times, other franchises rebuilt their rosters by trading closers (Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand, etc.) Atlanta sold low on Kimbrel just to get rid of the modest contract given to Melvin Upton.

Speaking of those trades, John Coppolella, for all his accolades, made some of the worst trades in recent memory in all of baseball. If I had to rank them:

1.) The Alex Wood trade to the Dodgers
2.) The Craig Kimbrel trade to the Padres.
3.) The Justin Upton trade to the Padres
4.) The Andrelton Simmons trade to the Angels.

These four trades have netted the Braves a total of: 5.9 wins above replacement (WAR). *Of this total, Sean Newcomb has amounted for 3.9 WAR on his own.*

In that same time, the players Atlanta traded have a total of: 49.4 WAR.

I don't claim to be an expert on analytics, but I think most fans can understand how terrible those trades were for the franchise.


While Atlanta is back to competing for division titles, their biggest issue is still the same: a cheap ownership group that isn't committed to winning. Like I've always said, until that is corrected, this team will always find themselves in a position to be good, but never truly great.

Also, if you've made it this far: hopefully you can sense sarcasm since this article is loaded with it.

Just wanted to credit Baseball-Reference for the stats.





Friday, June 10, 2016

Atlanta is not rebuilding like the Cubs.

With the Braves and Cubs about to square off this weekend in Atlanta, you're undoubtedly going to hear commentators compare the two clubs and their rebuilding processes. 

(David Banks - Getty Images)


However, there are some stark differences between the two franchises. First off, the Cubs completely remade their entire front office. While Theo Epstein garners most of the attention, the additions of Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod shouldn't go unnoticed. All three worked together in Boston and helped them finally get over the preverbal hump (the New York Yankees.) It also doesn't hurt to have one of the best managers in Major League Baseball in Joe Maddon. 



When you compare that to the Braves, they fired a successful General Manager in Frank Wren and replaced him with John Hart and later on, John Coppolella. John Hart, John Schuerholz, and Bobby Cox all still have important roles with the franchise. While these men have all had successful and accomplished careers, shouldn't the front office be rebuilt with the rest of the team? It makes you wonder just how much freedom someone like Coppolella is allowed to have when he has so many old school guys around him. 

Getting back to the rebuilding efforts of both clubs, the Cubs have taken a very different route to their successful rebuild. First and foremost, the have an ownership group that allows the front office to spend on international talent as well as allows them to spend on the amateur draft. If you look at their draft philosophy, they very much differ from the Braves. Unlike Atlanta, the Cubs believe in taking college hitters with early first-round picks, and they have done so for three straight Drafts. Those hitters being: Kris Bryant ('13), Kyle Schwarber ('14), and Ian Happ ('15). Bryant and Schwarber have already provided huge value for the Cubs and Happ is rated as the third best second base prospect (by MLB.com).  When asked about Draft philosophy, Cubs’ top scouting and player development executive Jason McLeod told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times that, “We certainly don’t walk away from pitching,” McLeod said, stressing the club’s best-player-available philosophy. “We’ve talked also about how the history of the draft will tell you if players are close on evaluations, the college hitter is the way to go. They usually pan out the best.” 

When you take a look at the Braves' drafting philosophy, they've totally abandoned taking college bats. Since firing Frank Wren at the end of the 2014 season, Atlanta has drafted seven high school pitchers within the first two rounds during the '15 and '16 drafts. The front office did well in trading Shelby Miller for Dansby Swanson, but that's more about the Diamondbacks being in "win-now" mode and making a desperation move. Atlanta did very well for themselves in getting Swanson, but it feels more like a case of Arizona making a terrible move. The Braves organization is loaded with interesting pitching prospects, but there's only one potential impact bat (Swanson) and he was one of the best college hitters available in the '15 draft. 

If you look around Major League Baseball, more and more teams are deciding to go with college bats that can make an immediate impact. Michael Conforto (Mets), Trea Turner (Nats), A.J. Reed (Astros), and Stephen Piscotty (Cards) are all college bats who have already made an immediate impact or are on the cusp of breaking into the majors. (Even Bryce Harper spent a year at a Junior College).  

The Braves philosophy seems to be more like teams from the 1990's, in that they take power pitching with "projectable bodies" that are prone to breaking down over time. Much like the book Moneyball mentioned, teams continuously take high school pitchers who "look the part" instead of going with college pitchers who do not require much time to develop. Under Frank Wren, Atlanta successfully took college pitchers like Mike Minor, Sean Gilmartin, Craig Kimbrel, and Alex Wood. Not only were these pitchers able to be major league contributors soon after draft day, but they proved to be solid value picks because they've already completed their college careers and do not have the leverage of using a college commitment to gain more bonus money. 

High school players are like the ultimate lottery ticket. Some teams have hit big and been greatly rewarded, but far too often teams take players who just look the part and it can hurt the franchise for years to come. College pitchers, in my opinion, tend to be more projectable and require less time to develop. They've already been pitching in the equivalent of Double-A ball (especially in powerhouse conferences like the ACC, SEC, and PAC-12). 

The Cubs' rebuild has been successful due to their willingness to not only take college bats, but also find gems in trades. It's clear that they have a tremendous analytics department that have found things in players that other organizations either don't care about or don't want to work on. The best two examples of this are the trades for Jake Arrieta and Anthony Rizzo. Both were top prospects, but their previous organizations gave them up after waiting on them to reach their potential. Thanks to an ownership that is engaged to the team, they've been able to spend big not only on impact free agents like Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and Jon Lester, but they brought in Joe Maddon to tie all the pieces together. 

While the Braves are rebuilding, they haven't followed the same path as the Cubs. The Braves seem set on eating up bad contracts to gain draft picks and instead of taking impact college bats or pitchers, they're taking their chances on high school arms that will take much longer to develop. They've made several trades that just seem like they're spinning their wheels. Giving up cost controlled arms for players like Hector Olivera or signing aging vets like Nick Markakis who give the team no real upside. Fans see this team competing in 2017 or 2018, but unless they spend big in the free agent market, this rebuild looks like it's going to take until 2020 at the earliest. So far, there's just not enough to believe this team will suddenly compete by the window first put in place by the front office. At this point, it's unclear what the goal is for this organization. They have some nice pieces in place, but outside of Dansby Swanson, there's no immediate impact bat. Will this team actually be committed to spending on free agents? As we saw with the previous front office, spending on free agents is what ultimately cost Frank Wren his job. With the players that have been traded away, they made no attempt to sign young players like Jason Heyward or Justin Upton long term.... If those players were deemed too expensive, how can they justify spending tons of money later on for older players down the road? Especially with ownership that refused to allow the previous GM Frank Wren the ability to add salary to improve upon a 96 win team... The free agent market continues to get more and more expensive, especially for younger players with power potential. We're not too far away from seeing players like Bryce Harper potentially ask for $400M+ deal. Can the Braves really afford to play ball in that market? Time will only tell. 

There's really no comparing these two franchises. The Cubs have the front office and ownership in place to fuel success for many years down the road. They have a different philosophy and approach to building a team and so far, it's been very successful. The Braves on the other hand have been doing what teams have always done, taking high profile high school arms and praying that one of the dozen or so will actually pan out. In the end, saying these two franchises are following a similar path is just lazy journalism. When you look deeper, it's clear that vastly different ideas are in place for both franchises. Will this old school approach by Atlanta actually work? I guess we will check back in 2020 to see.